> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # "The Twenty-Eight Percent Earthquake: How Whānau Māori Are Walking Away From The Parties That Hurt Them" - 1 October 2026 - URL: https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/the-twenty-eight-percent-earthquake-how-whanau-maori-are-walking-away-from-the-parties-that-hurt-them-1-october-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-01T04:28:44.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-01T04:28:44.000Z - Description: Twenty-Eight Percent Of The Māori Roll Say Green, A Coalition Built On Cuts And Division Is On Notice, And The Misinformation Machine Cannot Stop A People Who Have Started Counting. - Author: Ivor Jones The Māori Green Lantern ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_1.png) Kia ora, Whānau. Click on this essay. It holds a wealth of information you can use every day. I've made an audio podcast that lays out this kaupapa in detail, a short video that explains it, and a 3,000-word cited essay waiting for you if you like your reading long. This is a repository for our mokopuna. They will be able to look back and say that at least the Māori Green Lantern, among a few, was warning us. [Poll says Māori are turning to the Greens for their party voteMāori are turning to the Greens for their party vote with a new poll revealing a change described by commentators as “massive”.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/icon/favicon-32x32.bc7fe925-32129b15-c767-4776-9224-39745566732e.png)RNZRNZ | Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/thumbnail/4JHFV04_Screenshot_2026_10_01_134945_png-a684389b-658f-4148-9992-d1962e19742e.jpg)](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics%5Felection-2026/1671964/poll-says-maori-are-turning-to-the-greens-for-their-party-vote?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) **What this essay covers:** - The claim that the Greens polled 28% on the Māori roll, tested against the numbers. - What is driving it, and what the poll cannot tell us. - Three examples for the Western mind, each with quantified harm, a solution and the impact on tikanga. - The far-right misinformation machine and why this poll threatens it. - Why I say do not vote this coalition back in, and why I recommend the Green Party vote. --- ## The Claim That Shook The Room ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_2.png) RNZ reported that Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote, in a [Mata-Horizon poll](https://thespinoff.co.nz/atea/01-10-2026/poll-says-maori-are-turning-to-the-greens-for-their-party-vote?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) revealed on Mata Reports. Twenty-eight percent of Māori roll respondents said Green, ahead of Labour on 27%, Te Pāti Māori on 16% and Opportunity on 6%. Tau Henare said it was "like sitting in Taupō when an earthquake goes off". Tina Wickliffe said she had never seen a result like it among Māori voters. The poll had 1,089 respondents and a ±3% margin of error. This is the movement I have argued for in every essay. I want the far right's grip on our politics to loosen, and whānau Māori are starting to say so at the ballot box. I also won't claim credit the data can't give me. Nobody measured whether any essay moved a vote. I claim the direction, and I refuse to claim the cause. --- ## Reading The Twenty-Eight Percent Honestly ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_28__M--ori_Voter_Earthquake.png) The Greens lead Labour by 1 point (28 − 27), inside a ±3% margin. That makes it a tie. Picture two sprinters crossing a line 1 centimetre apart and a referee declaring a runaway victory. A tie among Māori roll voters is still historic news, because Labour has traditionally been the party to beat. The baselines don't line up. RNZ says Green support rose 17% on the Māori roll, which implies an 11% start. The panel said "around 8%", a "20% gain". RNZ says Labour was up 1%, implying about 26%. The panel said "above 40". On the general roll, RNZ says the Greens rose 7% to 17%, implying a 10% start, while the panel said "from 7%". I cannot reconcile these figures. I rate them **Unverified**, and I will not repeat "a 20% gain" as fact. The panel's claim that Waiariki went from 5% to 43% is also **Unverified**. It comes from an on-air comment only. --- ## What Is Driving It ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_3.png) The poll doesn't say why. The people RNZ quoted offered several explanations: - **Strategic voting.** Maringi James said the Greens' result reflects Te Pāti Māori's "one-tick" push, which asks supporters to give Te Pāti Māori the electorate vote and the party vote elsewhere. - **Tania Waikato's campaign.** Both James and the RNZ article credit her prominence in Waiariki. - **Policy and candidates.** James said nine of the Greens' top 20 are Māori. Wickliffe credited the Greens' relentlessness on the cost of living. - **Distrust of Te Pāti Māori.** Jack Tautokai McDonald said voters are "disaffected" by the "raruraru" of the last few years. ### Example 1: The Ledger At The Till **Core claim.** Cost of living is the engine under this result. More than a third of the sample borrowed or used buy now pay later for essentials, and almost 40% said they definitely or probably could not cover an unexpected $500 expense. On 1,089 respondents, that is about 370 who borrowed and about 425 who couldn't find $500\. These are sample counts, and I draw no nationwide headcount from them. Confidence: **Verified**. A panellist's "193,000 people" and "over a billion dollars in tax" are not in the RNZ article. Confidence: **Unverified**. **Quantified harm.** My [Traffic Light Taiaha](https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/the-traffic-light-taiaha-how-a-white-supremacist-government-built-a-punishment-machine-that-creates-no-jobs-finds-no-work-and-feeds-only-on-brown-bodies-28-february-2026/) essay reported that Māori are 39% of beneficiaries but 55% of sanctions, a 1.41× over-representation, and that children in hardship rose by 47,500\. Those are my own figures from other sources. I rate them **Corroborated**. A coalition that polls 9% among Māori roll voters (4 + 3 + 2, transcript figures) can afford to ignore them. That figure is **Corroborated**. **Solution.** The Greens' health platform includes a free, universal public dental service, backed by a [Dental for All report](https://www.greens.org.nz/news%5Fhealth?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) the party says shows it is affordable. Wickliffe credited universal dental, cheaper groceries, cheaper power and taxing the rich for the Greens' cut-through. I have not verified the grocery and power policies at source. **Impact on tikanga.** Manaakitanga means caring for your people with kai first. A government that lets whānau borrow to buy kai fails the oldest tikanga we have. ### Example 2: A Vote Borrowed, Not Won **Core claim.** Some of that 28% is borrowed. [Newsroom reported](https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/08/28/te-pati-maoris-one-tick-trick-could-change-the-government/?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) that Te Pāti Māori is campaigning for the candidate vote in all seven seats and polling between 1% and 3% nationally. The strategy hands its party vote to Labour and the Greens. James said Waiariki voters were "allowed to vote for another party", and she wanted gratitude in return. Confidence: **Verified**. **Quantified harm and gain.** Daalder noted the Parliament has 123 seats, 3 above 120, and that two of those are from Te Pāti Māori. He said the party list decision could determine whether Labour can govern with only the Greens and Opportunity. The Greens' gains show up in local polls too. In Te Tai Hauāuru, a [Curia poll](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2026-debbie-ngarewa-packer-leads-candidate-vote-in-te-tai-hauauru-labour-ahead-on-party-vote/XCKALCEWXBBSDB43Z55QMSM4JE/?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) had the Greens on 19% against 7.6% in 2023, a gain of 11.4 points. Confidence: **Verified**. **Solution.** Treat your party vote as a taonga and give it where it earns its place. Ask parties for reciprocity on both votes. **Impact on tikanga.** Mana motuhake is our power over our own affairs. A split vote is a tikanga tool, and with it comes the duty to use it for whānau. ### Example 3: The Misinformation Machine Fights Back **Core claim.** In *Dirty Work*, Nicky Hager alleges the Taxpayers' Union used anti-Māori and co-governance politics, especially in its Stop Three Waters campaign, to build support and donations. [The Spinoff's Bulletin](https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/23-09-2026/nicky-hagers-dirty-work-taxpayers-union-three-waters-and-a-rotten-stench?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) reports Hager's account and quotes chairman Laurence Kubiak writing "Co-governance has been huge for us". Nanaia Mahuta said: "Follow the money, in terms of the Taxpayers' Union, and you find a rotten stench." Confidence: allegations **Verified as reported**. Whether they are true is **Unverified**. I have not read the book. **The denials.** The union rejects the claims, says it used Mahuta's photo because she was the lead minister, and says 3% of its funding comes from corporates. David Farrar told the Herald that what Hager attributes to him is "categorically wrong in relation to me". Hager's lawyers say no criminal allegations are made. [The Post](https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361086090/green-party-pull-out-taxpayers-union-debates-following-nicky-hager-book?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) reports the union also rejects an allegation about a harassment-complaint payout. Confidence: **Verified**. **Quantified harm.** I can't quantify harm from allegations. I can say what happened next. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick pulled the Greens out of the Taxpayers' Union debates and said all leaders need to "draw a line in the sand". Confidence: **Verified** ([The Post](https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361086090/green-party-pull-out-taxpayers-union-debates-following-nicky-hager-book?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz)). **A conflict I am putting on the table.** The Herald says Curia, led by David Farrar, polled Te Tai Tonga for Whakaata Māori and does internal polling for the National Party. Farrar is also named in Hager's book as a Taxpayers' Union co-founder. I have no evidence the polling was skewed. Confidence: the link is **Verified**, and any effect on results is **Unverified**. **Solution.** Read the book and the denials. Demand donor transparency from any group running political debates. When a 28% result threatens established power, expect a counter-narrative. **Impact on tikanga.** Whakapapa means tracing where things come from. Whānau deserve to know who funds the voices shaping their votes. --- ## The Deep Dive Podcast Cost of living fuels Mori Green surge 0:00 /1163.366168 1× Listen to a lively conversation between two hosts, unpacking and connecting topics in the sources of this essay. I apologise in advance for the AI's very harsh pronounciation of reo. Please dont shoot me, :). ## Youtube Video Like video? Here is a short video suppporting the essay. Again, don't shoot the messenger please because of AI's pronounciation. :) --- ## Koha Consideration ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_9.png) You might ask who is paying the Māori Green Lantern to write essays like this one about the 28% and the machine trying to explain it away. The answer is you do. This mahi is supported through koha and that is it. There are no corporates supporting this mahi. Every koha signals that whānau are ready to support the accountability that Crown and corporate structures will not provide. It signals that rangatiratanga includes the power to support our own truth tellers. Kia kaha, whānau. Stay vigilant. Stay connected. And if you are able, consider a koha to ensure this voice continues. If you are unable to koha, no worries! Subscribe or follow the Māori Green Lantern at [themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz](https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/), kōrero and share with your whānau and friends. That is koha in itself. **Four pathways exist:** - **Koha, direct:** [Koha — Support](https://app.koha.kiwi/events/the-maori-green-lantern-fighting-misinformation-and-disinformation-ivor-jones?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz) - **Subscribe to receive essays and support through subscription:** [Subscribe To The Māori Green Lantern](https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/#/portal/support) - **Bank transfer:** Ivor Jones, account number 03-1395-0099387-000 - **Facebook:** [Subscribe On Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/Themaorigreenlantern/subscribe/) --- ## The Tikanga Audit Of This Government ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_4.png) | Tikanga Test | The Evidence | Verdict | | -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------- | | **Mana preserved?** | Māori are 39% of beneficiaries and 55% of sanctions (Traffic Light essay) | Failed | | **Whakapapa recognised?** | s7AA was repealed under the Oranga Tamariki Amendment Act ([1News](https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/01/15/beyond-saddened-a-year-of-law-changes-impacting-maori/?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz)) | Failed | | **Wairua respected?** | Marine title overturned retrospectively across 280km (1News) | Failed | | **Whānau involved?** | Te Aka Whai Ora disestablished. About 24,000 signed a petition on Te Tiriti in schools (1News) | Failed | | **Returned to wellbeing?** | Over a third borrowed for essentials. Almost 40% couldn't find $500 (Spinoff/RNZ) | Failed | These verdicts are my opinion, based on the facts in the table. The Government says its changes concerned child safety, red tape and educational success. --- ## Previous Investigations By The Māori Green Lantern ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_6.png) I have been on this trail for a long time. The [Traffic Light Taiaha](https://www.themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz/the-traffic-light-taiaha-how-a-white-supremacist-government-built-a-punishment-machine-that-creates-no-jobs-finds-no-work-and-feeds-only-on-brown-bodies-28-february-2026/) essay (28 February 2026) traces sanctions and unemployment. The Pharmacy Con essay (16 April 2026) traces health restructuring. I could not confirm the URL for the Pharmacy Con essay, so I don't link it. ## Disconfirming Evidence Labour leads the party vote in Te Tai Hauāuru, on 26%, and in Te Tai Tonga, on 28%, according to the [Te Tai Tonga Curia poll](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2026-new-poll-reveals-frontrunner-in-the-maori-seat-of-te-tai-tonga/7GVSRBESHZDKRPHO5VHNPJB3SM/?ref=themaorigreenlantern.maori.nz). McDonald said on air that Labour remains the party to beat on the party vote in the Māori electorates. Wickliffe asked whether the Greens' policies are affordable. Twelve percent of the Māori roll sample is undecided or not voting (9 + 3). --- ## Why You Must Not Vote This Coalition Back In This is my opinion, built on the facts above: - It disestablished Te Aka Whai Ora, repealed s7AA, applied marine title retroactively and cut Te Tiriti duties from schools (1News). - Only 9% of Māori roll voters in this sample back National, ACT or NZ First. - The books improve while about 370 of 1,089 respondents borrowed to cover essentials. - Its supporters' tactics are the subject of serious published allegations that remain contested. I characterise a government that does these things as neoliberal and structurally racist. I hold that as opinion, and the evidence is above. Names are used in public capacity only. --- ## Why I Recommend The Green Party Vote ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b1/cd/b1cd2cb0-95e8-4ee7-ad91-84123e3121bd/content/images/2026/10/The_Rangatiratanga_Dossier_-_Slide_8.png) This is my opinion, flagged: - **Cost of living.** Free universal dental, with a report the party says shows it is affordable. - **Candidates.** Nine of the Greens' top 20 are Māori, and the party reached a record 16% in the recent 1News-Verian poll, per RNZ. - **Integrity under pressure.** Swarbrick pulled the party from the Taxpayers' Union debates. - **Direction.** The poll suggests the Greens are listening to Māori roll voters who are tired of the status quo. Give your party vote to the Greens, and use your candidate vote as you see fit. Hold them to account, because Greens aren't perfect, and Wickliffe's question about delivery is fair. --- ## Disclaimer **Disclaimer.** This is opinion and analysis based on the cited sources, as at 1 October 2026\. The allegations from Hager's book are his, are contested, and are not stated as fact. Characterisations such as "neoliberal" and "structurally racist" are my opinion, based on the facts in the same section. Contact me to request a correction or retraction.