"He Kore Tikanga: The Coalition of Betrayal" - 23 March 2026
The numbers don't lie, and neither does history.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll released this week delivers a verdict the whānau already knew in their bones: this coalition government — National, ACT, and NZ First — is a wreckage operation dressed up as economic management. Christopher Luxon sits at a net favourability score of -20.6, a number so catastrophically low it would embarrass a leaky rental agreement.
And yet, the most damning indictment is not what the polls say about them — it is what their policies have done to us.
The Numbers Are a Body Count
Let's start with the headline. National polls at 30.8 percent, barely above the electoral death-knell of anything starting with a "2". Luxon's preferred prime minister rating has collapsed to 17.3 percent, down from 19.4 in January. More brutally, 50 percent of New Zealanders now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction — up from 46.6 percent just two months ago.
Even ACT's own voters are fracturing. Only 57.5 percent of ACT supporters think the country is on the right track, and a jaw-dropping only 26.6 percent of NZ First voters feel the same. Winston Peters has managed to convince his own base that he is taking them somewhere wrong. That is a special kind of failure.
The economic rot is documented. In September 2025, New Zealand's economy shrank sharply while Nicola Willis pointed to "global turmoil" — a direct admission that the government's economic management has delivered nothing. A record 73,400 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year to July 2025. Kiwis are voting with their feet. National promised to fix the economy. It broke it instead.
The Deep Dive Podcast
Listen to a lively conversation between two hosts, unpacking and connecting topics in the sources of this essay
Cui Bono? Who Benefits From This Chaos?
Not tangata whenua. Not working-class Pākehā. The cui bono points to the same class it always does: the already-wealthy, the landlords, the corporate sector, the ideological architects of small government who never needed government to survive.
The Green Party documented what Budget 2025 did to Māori specifically: the Māori Development Fund was stripped by nearly $10 million, funding to Whakaata Māori was cut deeper, and Whānau Ora was left with even less. This is not mismanagement. This is targeted divestment from Māori infrastructure built over decades. The cui malo — who suffers — is us.
The Treaty Assault: Five Hidden Connections
The coalition has waged a multi-front war on Te Tiriti o Waitangi. Each front was coordinated, each was denied, each has been exposed.
Connection 1: ACT's Treaty Principles Bill as ideological Trojan horse. The Waitangi Tribunal found the bill was "little more than a politically motivated attack on perceived Māori privilege" and would "drastically alter the meaning of the Treaty." It was pursued, the Tribunal confirmed, "without any engagement or discussion with Māori" — in the face of clear official advice it would breach Treaty obligations and damage social cohesion. The Justice Select Committee later called for it to be scrapped entirely. Seymour pressed on regardless.
Connection 2: The Marine and Coastal Area law — worse than the Foreshore and Seabed Act. In October 2025, RNZ reported on legislation designed to make it harder for Māori to win coastal rights claims. No coalition members attended the pōwhiri when petitioners arrived at Parliament. Te Pāti Māori's Tākuta Ferris called on the Governor-General to intervene. This is a government that cannot even show up to receive a petition it disagrees with.
Connection 3: Māori wards reversed on a petition the coalition itself couldn't fill. NZ First's election manifesto promised to repeal Māori ward protections. They reversed the law, stripping councils of the protections Labour had built, as 1News documented in the councils' subsequent crisis of representation. The Waitangi Tribunal launched an urgent inquiry into the referendums process, finding the Crown had failed to meaningfully engage Māori. The democratic mandate was fiction. The harm to local Māori representation was real.
Connection 4: The United Nations has been told. The Aotearoa Centre for Indigenous Peoples and the Law (Te Wai Ariki) submitted a report to CERD — the UN's racial discrimination committee — documenting multiple Te Tiriti breaches by the 54th government. As Te Ao Māori News reported, the report stated the government is "actively and profoundly aggravating New Zealand's constitutionally racist foundation in a way we have not seen for at least half a century." The disestablishment of Te Aka Whai Ora — the Māori Health Authority — was listed as a Treaty breach. This is not hyperbole. This is legal scholarship presented to an international body.
Connection 5: Te Pāti Māori MPs suspended for performing a haka. Parliament suspended Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer for 21 days without salary, and Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke for 7 days — for performing a haka in opposition to the Treaty Principles Bill. As RNZ's analysis of the Privileges Committee found, the punishment was widely described as disproportionate and "open to allegations of racism." The message was unambiguous: Māori resistance will be punished.
Luxon's "Vibe" Defence Is Insulting
In December 2025, facing the wreckage, Luxon finally admitted to Te Ao Māori News that there is a "trust gap" with Māori. His explanation? The Treaty Principles Bill was "not helpful in terms of the vibe."
The vibe.
A constitutional assault on indigenous rights, condemned by the Waitangi Tribunal, the United Nations, and New Zealand's own Justice Select Committee — and this man calls it a vibe problem. Luxon also admitted that his engagement with Māori leaders was happening behind closed doors, in private meetings, away from public accountability. This is governance by invisibility — not partnership, not rangatiratanga, not Te Tiriti.
Meanwhile, the FamilyBoost scheme was labelled an "absolute disaster zone" by the Opposition, prompting Luxon to snap at "frickin' Chris Hipkins" on live radio. Each week produces a new scandal, a new deflection, a new claim that things would be worse under someone else.
The Coalition's Internal Rot
The coalition is not even holding its own supporters. NZ First — led by a man who has made a career of weaponising Māori-Pākehā tension for electoral gain — now has only 26.6 percent of its own voters thinking the country is on the right path. That is a party that has lost the faith of three-quarters of its own base.
ACT has driven the ideological agenda of this government further right than any coalition partner since the 1990s. David Seymour's Treaty Principles Bill, his assault on co-governance, his rhetoric about "equal rights" that means stripping Māori of specific rights — all of this is ACT's fingerprints on the crime scene. And yet ACT sits at only 7 percent in the latest poll, dragged down by the consequences of its own ideology meeting reality.
The Hung Parliament Prophecy
If this poll result played out on election night, both blocs would receive 60 seats each — a hung parliament. The RNZ September 2025 poll had already pointed to a deadlocked parliament, and it has only deteriorated since.
Seven months from an election, Luxon has a preferred PM rating of 17.3 percent, with Erica Stanford registering 1.4 percent and Chris Bishop at 0.6 percent as potential successors. This is not a leadership crisis. This is a leadership extinction event. As RNZ's analyst notes, "the runway for turning the economy around is growing shorter by the week."
Te Ara o Rangatiratanga — The Path Forward
This government was never designed to work for tangata whenua. It was designed to dismantle the architecture of Treaty partnership — piece by piece, law by law, fund by fund — while insisting it was acting in Māori interests.
The whānau know better. The Waitangi Tribunal has said so. The United Nations has been told. The Green Party has documented the budget carnage. And now, the polls are catching up with what Māori communities have lived since the first day of this coalition's existence.
The action pathway is clear: vote them out, document every breach, continue the Tribunal claims, support Te Pāti Māori's constitutional challenges, and hold the international community's attention. The coalition's term expires in October 2026. Not a moment too soon.
Koha Consideration
Every koha signals that whānau are ready to fund the accountability that Crown and corporate structures will not provide. It signals that rangatiratanga includes the power to fund our own truth tellers.
Kia kaha, whānau. Stay vigilant. Stay connected. And if you are able, consider a koha to ensure this voice continues.
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Research transparency: All URLs verified live, 23 March 2026. Primary sources: RNZ-Reid Research polling, Waitangi Tribunal findings, Te Wai Ariki CERD submission, Te Ao Māori News, Green Party Budget analysis. Research tools used: search_web, fetch_url.
