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"The Great Oil and Gas Con Job" - 2 August 2025

Ivor Jones The Māori Green Ltn

02 Aug 2025 — 12 min read

Kia ora koutou katoa- hello to all people

The coalition government's reversal of the 2018 offshore oil and gas exploration ban represents one of the most cynical pieces of political theatre Aotearoa has witnessed in recent memory - a manufactured crisis designed to serve fossil fuel interests while betraying our climate commitments and indigenous rights.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/08/01/coalition-parties-call-for-opposition-not-to-re-ban-oil-and-gas-exploration/

Setting the Scene

When Shane Jones stood alongside Jacinda Ardern in 2018 to announce the oil and gas exploration ban1, few could have predicted his dramatic policy flip-flop. Now, as Resources Minister, Jones leads the charge to reverse the very policy he once championed, claiming it has "exacerbated shortages in our domestic gas supply"2 and caused an energy crisis.

But this narrative crumbles under scrutiny. The evidence reveals a government manufacturing consent for fossil fuel expansion through fear-mongering and historical revisionism, while ignoring the industry's own assessment that New Zealand waters hold little commercial promise.

Te Taiao: Environmental Context and Colonial Patterns

The 2018 ban emerged from growing recognition that fossil fuel expansion contradicts climate science and Māori environmental values. Yet the coalition's reversal follows colonial patterns of resource extraction that prioritize short-term profits over long-term sustainability and indigenous rights.

Analysis by MBIE shows that reversing the ban will add 14.2 million tonnes of emissions1, roughly equivalent to New Zealand's annual transport emissions. More damning still, leaked Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade assessments warn the reversal would "likely be inconsistent with the obligations in several of New Zealand's free-trade agreements"3 with the EU and UK.

This policy represents everything wrong with neoliberal environmental governance - prioritizing corporate interests over treaty obligations, climate commitments, and intergenerational responsibility.

Whakapuaki: Issue Analysis

The coalition's justification for the reversal rests on three key claims, each demonstrably false:

Claim 1: The 2018 ban caused New Zealand's energy crisis

The evidence tells a different story. As detailed analysis from RNZ reveals, New Zealand's gas shortage was not caused by the offshore exploration ban4. Gas production has plunged to a 40-year low, but this reflects the natural depletion of existing fields, not policy settings. When the ban was announced in 2018, only one offshore permit had been granted in each of the previous two years4.

Timeline of Oil Company Exits from New Zealand (2010-2018): Industry Departure Predated the 2018 Exploration Ban

Claim 2: The ban deterred investment in the oil and gas sector

Green Party MP Steve Abel demolished this myth by listing the companies that fled New Zealand before the ban: "Exxon Mobil abandoning its southern oil and gas hunt in November 2010 after three years, Petrobras in December 2012, Texan driller Anadarko exiting its permit on the North Island's west coast in May 2014, Statoil quitting its Northland permit in October 2016, and Shell selling its remaining assets to OMV in March 2018"1.

The ban was, as Abel correctly stated, "the final nail in the coffin of an industry that was already declaring its own demise in this country, because they came, they prospected, they found nothing"1.

Claim 3: Reversing the ban will improve energy security

The government's own modeling reveals no new gas fields are likely to be discovered and developed in the next 10 years5. Even Echelon Resources, formerly New Zealand Oil and Gas, told RNZ that "the best wells are typically drilled first, so new drilling will be more difficult and expensive"1.

Exposing the Contradictions

The coalition's energy narrative contains multiple contradictions that expose its ideological foundations:

The Coal Hypocrisy

Jones claims reversing the ban will reduce coal use, yet Genesis Energy has ramped up coal imports from Indonesia to meet demand6. The government's own analysis acknowledges that "New Zealand has increasingly turned to coal, a fuel with twice the carbon intensity of natural gas"7 due to gas shortages.

When asked about Pacific nations threatened by rising sea levels, Jones dismissed concerns as "left wing catastrophisation"6, revealing the colonial mindset that treats climate impacts on indigenous Pacific peoples as acceptable collateral damage.

The Manufacturing Crisis

New Zealand's natural gas production dropped 12.5% in 2023 and a further 27.8% in the first quarter of 20248, driving electricity prices to record highs near NZ$1000 per megawatt-hour. This genuine crisis stems from the natural depletion of the Māui and other gas fields, not policy settings.

Yet the coalition exploits this crisis to push through policy changes that will have no short-term impact while generating massive long-term emissions. The latest MBIE modeling shows only 1.6-2.4 million tonnes of extra emissions by 20355 from the reversal - a significant reduction from earlier estimates precisely because no new gas is expected.

The Māori Rights Violation

The reversal proceeds without genuine consultation with Māori, continuing a pattern of resource extraction that violates tino rangatiratanga. The Waitangi Tribunal has previously found that Māori had legal title over petroleum on their land before the 1937 Petroleum Act nationalised these resources9.

Māori opposition to oil exploration has been consistent and principled, from Te Whānau-a-Apanui's protests against Petrobras in 201110 to Ngāti Kahu's constitutional challenges to deep sea drilling permits11. These actions reflect Māori environmental values that prioritise intergenerational responsibility over short-term profit.

Ngā Pāpātanga: The Broader Implications

This policy reversal represents more than environmental backsliding - it reveals the coalition's embrace of neoliberal logic that treats nature as a commodity and climate science as optional. The implications extend far beyond energy policy:

Undermining Climate Action

At a time when climate science demands rapid decarbonisation, the coalition actively encourages new fossil fuel exploration. This sends a signal to the international community that New Zealand's climate commitments are conditional on political convenience.

Weakening Indigenous Rights

The reversal proceeds without meaningful Māori consultation, treating indigenous opposition as an inconvenience to be managed rather than a fundamental right to be respected. This colonial approach to resource extraction undermines the foundation of our constitutional arrangements.

Privileging Corporate Interests

The policy prioritises the theoretical interests of multinational oil companies over the demonstrated concerns of New Zealand communities, Pacific nations, and future generations. This represents a fundamental misallocation of political priority.

Call to Action

The coalition's oil and gas reversal represents everything toxic about contemporary New Zealand politics - the manufacturing of crises to serve corporate interests, the dismissal of Māori rights as inconvenient, and the treatment of climate science as negotiable.

The evidence is clear: the oil and gas industry abandoned New Zealand because there's nothing commercially viable to find. The 2018 ban was indeed, as Green MP Steve Abel stated, the final nail in the coffin of an industry already in decline.

Yet the coalition persists with this charade because it serves their ideological commitment to fossil fuel expansion, regardless of climate, environmental, or indigenous rights consequences.

The opposition's promise to restore the ban if returned to power provides hope, but we cannot wait for electoral salvation. This policy demands immediate resistance from all who value climate action, indigenous rights, and intergenerational justice.

The time for politeness has passed. This is about the future of our taiao and our children's inheritance. We must oppose this policy with the urgency it demands.

Koha Statement

To readers who find value in this analysis and wish to support continued investigation into fossil fuel industry misinformation and colonial policy-making, please consider contributing a koha to support this mahi: HTDM: 03-1546-0415173-000. Given these challenging economic times for whānau, please only contribute if you have capacity and wish to do so.

Ngā mihi nui
Ivor Jones - The Māori Green Lantern

http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=AJ70026

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